Wednesday, July 28, 2010

Winter has passed and Spring is here

Here it comes, the consistent placement of properties to the market. You will see property pages and websites grow quickly over the coming weeks. Agents are reporting that bookings are being taken now for campaigns commencing in Mid October. Buyer numbers are up at open houses and well presented properties are selling strongly. McGrath reported Auction clearance rates of 87% and 91% the past two weeks, well above Sydney averages.

Off the back of strong sales in July and August, I am bringing several properties to market this Spring. Keep an eyeout for 76 Hilma St Collaroy (link below), 155 Veterans Pde Narrabeen, 27/122 Ocean St Narrabeen and 53 Norfolk Ave Collaroy.

A clip from Saturday 4th Sept Manly Daily states:
" It is interesting to note that despite the fact that we haven't got a formal government at the moment and real estate went into pause mode over the election campaign, as Spring kicks off, the Auction season is back in business. There are 25 Northern Beaches properties going under the hammer in Mid-September and already agents and auctioneers are starting to juggle dates and open times to accomodate the rush. Agents report that not withstanding nervous jitters in the USA about a double dip recession, and talk of financial pain in Europe, with a number of Eu countries on the brink, Australia in general, and the Northern Beaches in particular, seem to be weathering the housing finance storm. it is very much business as usual here"

My Recent Sales include:
to view Sold properties click on link below:
1586 Pittwater Rd, Mona Vale $822,000
64 Samuel St, Mona Vale, $1,225,000
8/4 Vineyard, St Mona Vale, $530,000

Currently on the Market: Links below
22 Bertana Cres, Warriewood Price: Over $800,000

Industry News courtesy of RP Data.
The strength of the Australian economy surprised most of the economic community when GDP figures were released earlier this week. The seasonally adjusted figures showed the Australian economy grew by 1.2% over the June quarter and 3.3% over the year. The broad expectation was for a 0.9% increase in the rate of economic expansion.

It’s logical to think that a strong economy is likely to propel the real estate market into another growth phase. Around 95% of the participating workforce is employed, official interest rates have stabilized, consumer confidence remains positive and the mining sector is continuing to see solid demand which underpins the economy.

Despite the strong economic foundations, we would be surprised if Australian home values did continue to climb. As the graph below highlights, home values don’t always move in concert with economic conditions. The housing market generally softens as the economy slows down, but the opposite is not always true.

The property boom that kicked off in 2000/01 provides a recent example. Looking specifically at Sydney, the property growth cycle peaked in June 2002 when capital city home values had recorded 22.5% growth over the previous 12 months. At the same time annual GDP growth reached a peak of 4.5% then gradually declined to 2.3% a year later. When GDP started once again to skyrocket on the back of the mining boom (reaching an annual growth rate of 4.9% in March 2004), Sydney property values actually continued their downwards trend, moving into negative growth between June 2004 and March 2006 despite annual GDP growth remaining above 2.5% the entire time.

The one thing to take from this analysis is that strong economic fundamentals don’t always drive property markets. The stage of the market cycle has a strong influence over growth rates and the momentum of the cycle is difficult to break.

There are quite a few parallels that can be drawn between the market back in 2004 and the one we are seeing today. At the end of 2003 the market was emerging from a strong growth phase led by Melbourne and Sydney. As the market was winding down the resources sector was starting to heat up. GDP growth was healthy, unemployment was in the low 5%’s and trending down and consumer confidence was high. The markets that showed the most growth at this time were firstly Brisbane followed by Perth.

The same may be true in the current market conditions. In Brisbane and Perth growth rates have been subdued since 2008 and the economies are much more intertwined with the resources sector than in other states.

Below is a short video clip I pulled off youtube, I thought it might give you a laugh

For a copy of this weeks just click on the link below.

If I can be of any further assistance, just call me (m) 0411 420 100

Hoping to see you at an open home soon.


Steven Purcell

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